The online business model will likely change

It is important to try to understand the perspective of others in most situations. We far too easily see things biased our own priorities and past experiences. It is too easy to see how changes will benefit us and not how such change will affect others. Trying to work through how others will see a given situation offers insights. This is what I try to do when considering the hidden relationship between Internet service providers, content creators, and content consumers.

Allow me a thought experiment

Try considering my perspective related to the content I author. I will make about $4 this year for my efforts. You are looking at some of my content this moment and it took me some time to research the issue that is the focus of this post and to write the post. As part of my expectation for your viewing my content, I have included a Google ad in the display. It is not my expectation that you will click on this ad (which would result in my receiving a few pennies), but it is my expectation that this ad will be displayed. This is the way click-through ads work. If you click an ad, you are paying me. Just by allowing the ad to be visible and not using some way to block its appearance, you have provided Google the opportunity to collect some information about your behavior that is valuable in selecting the ad you view and in allowing Google to sell the ad at a higher price than it would receive for placing some random ad on the page. If you see the ad, you provide this information about yourself whether you click the ad or not. Google does not collect revenue from you even though you benefit from free Google services.

So, it useful to consider the assumptions the multiple parties in the scenario I describe make. You hear the term “business model” thrown about. Perhaps what I describe is a way to consider such assumptions from a business perspective.

Google assumes it can sell ads if it convinces those who pay for the ads that targeted ads warrant a higher price than random ads.

Google assumes it can give viewers free access to its infrastructure and the work of its employees if it displays targeted ads.

Viewers assume that they can view the content and access the online service without having to pay beyond sharing personal information.

Viewers assume their personal information will be used in an appropriate way.

The content creator assumes that viewers will view the Google ad and a few will be interested enough to click the ad to learn about the product or service.

I think it fair to say that all of these assumptions must be met if this interaction of participations can be expected to continue.

I think this model is breaking down and it is yet unclear how the failed assumptions will change the online experience going forward. Users are finding ways to block ads. Some online services are selling personal user data in ways not understood by the users. 

I think it valuable to consider your own assumptions and to acknowledge the assumptions of others involved in the present online experience. You may disagree with my appraisal, but I would ask that you consider how your assumptions differ from mine. What do you expect the future to bring? I believe some changes are occurring and others (federal intervention) will occur soon. My interest is in getting individuals to consider their role in how the new set of assumptions will produce different experiences and whether these new experiences will be an improvement or not.

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