Barbara Walter studies how civil wars start. This interest covers a wide swath of history with a particular focus on what we would consider recent examples. She and colleagues identify factors in specific international cases and they weight as most predictive those factors that appear in most situations. She argues that the U.S. democracy has shown a decline since 2010 and focuses on the variables that appear in her research on the predictors of civil wars.
A couple of indicators:
- Ethnic decline – situations in which a once dominant faction finds itself in decline
- Anocracy – government that mixes democracy and autocracy
Yes, these indicators may sound similar
I am working on the book, but after becoming interested by listening to a couple of interviews. These interviews offer a framework that is expanded in the book.