I recently read what I found to be a depressing account of the future of AI by Deepmind founder Mustafa Suleyman (The Coming Wave). The author examines developments in synthetic biology and artificial intelligence concluding that despite the obvious advantages of both fields (and the interaction of these two technologies) both areas are advancing in capabilities and applications so rapidly that serious dangers are very difficult to address.
When I say depressing, I mean that ways to address the negative potential of these fields seem unavoidable. His explanation of the dangers made a solid case. Both fields have escaped the typically slow pace of academic research labs and are being developed by commercial entities. The money required for the infrastructure and personnel requirements are beyond the reach of even the most elite universities. These organizations are in a breakneck race to control the market with huge revenue opportunities in the balance. Whether or not our government will step in to establish regulations and monitoring to require careful consideration of dangers, the governments in other countries will not have the same motives and see these fields as key to international power.
While bigger is one of the characteristics creating this challenge, smaller also contributes. While large corporations or even nations create the tools of AI and synthetic biology, the use of these tools once available is in control of individuals. Many will have the capabilities to implement uses of AI and synthetic biology.
The recent OpenAI upheaval seems an example of some of these issues in action. OpenAI originated in part to provide an alternative to the efforts of big corporations. Even as a well-funded nonprofit, OpenAI sought additional funding opportunities in part leading to disagreements between the board and key personnel. It seemed AI innovation would continue no matter any position taken by OpenAI and just to remain a credible option to the efforts of huge established companies, OpenAI must sell products and make its products more adaptable to the interests of individual users.